Fourteen months after planting, the survival count came back at 88 percent across 6 ha, with 71 percent of the survivors rated good and the rest fair. The block had been gelled at planting. The question on the table was whether to spend another 4,200 dollars on a second application before the second summer, and the answer was not the one the grower expected.
End-of-establishment reviews are where gel decisions get made on the basis of the last season’s memory rather than the next season’s risk. Here is how to run one so that the decision is defensible either way.
Dig three trees: one good, one fair, one from the worst patch. Look at how far the root system has spread beyond the original planting hole. On a first-year tree in a good season, roots commonly extend 400 to 600 mm past the hole. On a poor one, they may still be inside it.
That single measurement decides most top-up questions. If the roots have moved well beyond the treated zone, the gel is now a small fraction of the root volume, and a second application at the same place will serve a shrinking share of the root system. If the roots are still inside the hole, the block has an establishment problem that a second dose will not fix, because the constraint is below ground and physical rather than chemical.
In the same pits, look at the original granules. Swollen and translucent after watering means the material is still functioning. Flattened and opaque means it has been through many cycles and is losing capacity. Hard, glassy and angular means it has been collapsed by salt or by severe drying, and it will not recover.
If you find no granules at all in the original root zone, the first application is not there any more, and the question changes from top-up to diagnosis. That happens more often than people expect on surface-applied blocks and on sites with heavy winter rainfall.
Three options, and they should be compared on cost per unit of survival risk, not cost per kilogram.
On the 6 ha block, the numbers came out at 4,200 dollars for a full top-up, 2,600 for a banded application, and about 1,900 for two extra irrigation passes in January and February. The third option won, not because it was cheapest, but because the block had water available and the pits showed roots already 500 mm beyond the treated zone.
Three situations justify it. Sandy soil with under 1 percent organic matter, where the profile has almost no native buffering and the roots have not yet reached moisture at depth. Blocks on limited water, where the second summer is the one that will decide the crop and the supply is not reliable. And container or short-cycle crops, where the root volume is fixed and the buffering effect does not decline with root spread.
The case where it does not earn its money is a clay loam with good structure and a working drip system. I have watched a grower spend 3,000 on a year-two top-up on exactly that soil, and the block performed identically to the untreated rows beside it. The material was fine. There was simply nothing left for it to improve.
The review should produce one page: survival by zone, root spread measurement, granule condition, the three costed options, and the chosen one with a date. Then next year’s review starts from a record rather than a memory.
Doing this at month 14 rather than month 24 matters, because the second summer is usually the first real test and the decision has to be made before it, not after.
Run the review at month 14, not month 24. The application guide has a one-page form covering root spread, granule condition and the three costed options; send the survival map and next summer’s water position and we will say which option fits.
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