Dosing forecasts from rainfall data: a simple planning model
Three inputs, one spreadsheet, a 12 percent forecast. How to calibrate runoff from your own records and where a rainfall model stops being useful.
Three inputs, one spreadsheet, a 12 percent forecast. How to calibrate runoff from your own records and where a rainfall model stops being useful.
Week 51 uses 40 percent more pads than week 8. A three-line forecast, why a monthly order misses the peak, and how much stock cover a dry store really needs.
The budget line said four tonnes for the season. The site used 6.3, the overrun landed in Q4, and the explanation offered was "a wet autumn". It probably was wet – but the real failure was that the number had been built from an annual tonnage figure and a brochure absorption ratio, n…
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